Chicago weather is basically a mood ring. Honestly, if you’ve lived here long enough, you know that the 10 day chicago weather forecast is less of a rigid schedule and more of a "polite suggestion" from Mother Nature. Right now, as we sit in the middle of January 2026, the city is shaking off the literal hangover of that bizarre flash flood event from a few days ago.
Remember Jan 8th? O’Hare saw nearly two inches of rain. In January. That’s not normal. It broke a record from 1935. Then we hit 60 degrees at midnight. It’s wild out here.
But the party's over. The mild air is packing its bags, and the "real" Chicago winter is finally deciding to show up for work. If you’re looking at the next week and a half, you need to prepare for a steady slide into the freezer.
The Immediate Shift: Snow is Back
Wednesday, January 14, is the turning point. We’re dropping from those weirdly comfortable 40s down to a high of $31^{\circ}\text{F}$. It’s going to be blustery. Northwest winds are expected to kick up to 22 mph, making that 31 feel a lot more like 15.
We’re also looking at scattered snow showers. It’s not going to be a "shut down the city" kind of blizzard, but it’ll be enough to make the Kennedy Expressway a nightmare during the evening commute. Typical Chicago.
Mid-Week Lull or Trap?
By Thursday and Friday (Jan 15–16), things get gray. Extremely gray. The cloud cover is expected to be thick, with highs hovering around $29^{\circ}\text{F}$ to $37^{\circ}\text{F}$.
There’s a persistent chance of light snow or flurries. The National Weather Service is currently tracking a system that might bring more consistent snow Friday night. If you have plans at the United Center or are heading out for dinner in the West Loop, keep an extra 20 minutes in your back pocket for travel.
The Arctic Punch: January 17 to January 20
This is the part of the 10 day chicago weather forecast that people usually get wrong. They see "18 degrees" and think, "Oh, I've got a coat for that."
You don't. Not when the wind gets involved.
Starting Saturday, Jan 17, the mercury takes a dive. We’re looking at highs that won’t even touch the $20^{\circ}\text{F}$ mark. Sunday and Monday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) are looking particularly brutal.
- Sunday, Jan 18: High of $18^{\circ}\text{F}$, low of $12^{\circ}\text{F}$. Snow showers likely.
- Monday, Jan 19: High of $18^{\circ}\text{F}$, but the low drops to a stinging $7^{\circ}\text{F}$.
Monday night is going to be the coldest of the stretch. When the air hits $7^{\circ}\text{F}$ and those 17 mph west winds start whipping between the skyscrapers, the wind chill will easily dip into the negatives. If you’re walking the Dog on the lakefront, your face will hurt in about four minutes. That’s the real Chicago.
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Why Does This Keep Happening?
We’re currently transitioning into an "ENSO-neutral" state. Basically, the La Niña that dominated the early winter is weakening. While that usually means more "normal" temperatures, "normal" for Chicago in late January is still pretty miserable.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently showing a leaning toward below-normal temperatures for the Great Lakes region through the end of the month. So, this isn't just a weekend cold snap. It's the start of the deep freeze.
The Long-Range Outlook: Jan 21 to Jan 23
The end of the 10-day window brings a bit of a mystery. Wednesday, Jan 21, might see a slight "warm-up" back to $25^{\circ}\text{F}$. I know, calling 25 a warm-up sounds like a joke, but after $7^{\circ}\text{F}$, you’ll take it.
However, the big story is Friday, January 23. Early models are hinting at a heavy snow storm.
The current forecast has a high of $27^{\circ}\text{F}$ with a 65% chance of snow during the night. The wind is projected to shift to the North at 16 mph. This is the setup for lake-effect enhancement. If that moisture from Lake Michigan gets pulled into the system, those "light showers" can turn into six inches of powder very quickly.
Dealing With the "Lake Effect" Myth
A lot of tourists think being near the water makes it colder. Sorta. In the summer, the lake keeps things cool. In the winter, it can actually act as a slight heat sink, keeping the immediate Loop a degree or two warmer than, say, Naperville or Aurora.
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But the trade-off is the snow. When cold air moves over the relatively "warm" lake water (which is currently around $39^{\circ}\text{F}$ according to recent buoy data), it creates those intense snow bands. If you’re in Evanston or Rogers Park, you might get dumped on while the suburbs stay dry.
Navigating the Next 10 Days: Actionable Tips
Don't just look at the numbers. Plan for the reality of the Windy City.
Layering isn't a suggestion. If you’re commuting, you need a base layer that wicks moisture. Walking from the Ogilvie Transportation Center to an office building in a heavy wool coat sounds great until you start sweating in the elevator. Then you go back outside into $12^{\circ}\text{F}$ air, and that sweat turns into an ice pack. Wear a vest over a light sweater under your parka.
Check your tires now.
We’ve had a lot of rain lately. That rain has found its way into every pothole on Western Avenue. As temperatures drop below freezing on Wednesday, those wet spots are going to turn into black ice. Chicago salt trucks are good, but they aren't magic.
Watch the "RealFeel."
On Monday, Jan 19, the high is $18^{\circ}\text{F}$. But with the humidity at 60% and the wind at 17 mph, the "RealFeel" will likely be closer to $2^{\circ}\text{F}$ or $3^{\circ}\text{F}$ during the day. Dress for the lower number, always.
Pet Safety.
The salt used on Chicago sidewalks is brutal on dog paws. If you’re taking your pup out during the cold snap from the 17th to the 20th, use boots or a protective wax. Also, short walks are better. If it’s too cold for you to stand outside in a t-shirt, it’s getting too cold for their paws on the concrete.
Prepare for Travel Delays.
With the potential storm on Friday, Jan 23, O'Hare and Midway will likely see cancellations or significant delays. If you’re flying out for a weekend trip, try to book the earliest flight possible. Morning flights are statistically less likely to be canceled than evening ones when the snow starts piling up.
The Chicago winter is a marathon, not a sprint. We’re moving out of the record-breaking warmth of early January and back into the grind. Keep your shovel handy and your windshield fluid topped off. You're going to need it.