So, you’re looking at the 10 day forecast honolulu oahu and trying to figure out if you should pack that extra raincoat or just a third bottle of SPF 50. Honestly, Hawaii weather is a bit of a tease. One minute you’re sunbathing on Waikiki, and the next, a "Kona storm" is dumping a month's worth of rain on your Mai Tai.
Right now, as of Saturday night, January 17, 2026, Honolulu is sitting at a comfortable 71°F. It feels more like 76°F because of the humidity, which is hovering around 60%. If you’re outside, you’ve probably noticed the breeze—it's coming from the east at about 17 mph. It’s a "partly cloudy" kind of night, which basically means the moon is playing hide-and-seek.
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What the 10 day forecast honolulu oahu actually looks like
If you're planning your week, here is the raw deal. We're looking at a split personality of a week. The next few days are actually pretty sweet. Sunday and Monday (January 18-19) are staying in that "partly sunny" sweet spot with highs of 77°F to 78°F. The rain chance is super low, maybe 5% to 10%.
But don't get too comfortable.
Things start to get a little wonky by mid-week. By Wednesday, January 21, the clouds really start to move in. We're talking a 35% chance of rain that jumps up to a whopping 65% on Thursday. If you have outdoor photos or a helicopter tour planned, Thursday and Friday are looking kinda dicey. Friday, January 23, is forecasting "showers rain" all day and night with a 70% chance of getting soaked.
The real kicker? Saturday, January 24. The forecast is calling for a "heavy thunderstorm" during the day.
Breaking down the daily vibe
- Tonight: 71°F, partly cloudy, 17 mph winds.
- Sunday (Jan 18): High 77°F, Low 68°F. Mostly sunny, great beach day.
- Monday (Jan 19): High 78°F, Low 66°F. Light winds from the southeast.
- Tuesday (Jan 20): High 79°F, Low 66°F. Starting to cloud up.
- Wednesday (Jan 21): High 77°F. Cloudy with rain creeping in.
- Thursday (Jan 22): High 75°F. Expect rain (65% chance).
- Friday (Jan 23): High 76°F. Consistent showers.
- Saturday (Jan 24): High 77°F. Heavy thunderstorms likely.
- Sunday (Jan 25): High 79°F. Clearing up! Mostly sunny again.
- Monday (Jan 26): High 79°F. Full sun, back to paradise.
The "La Niña" factor and your trip
You might've heard meteorologists buzzing about La Niña lately. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, we are currently in a La Niña Advisory. For Oahu, this usually means a wetter-than-average winter. In fact, most climate models for early 2026 predicted this exact trend: increased probabilities for above-normal precipitation.
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While La Niña is expected to transition to "neutral" conditions by spring, it’s definitely the reason your late-January trip looks a bit soggy in the middle. The "weak" La Niña events, like the one we're seeing now, often produce more of those winter systems that bring widespread rain across all the islands, not just the windward side.
Surf's up (Literally)
If you aren't just here for the tan, the surf report is actually the more exciting part of the 10 day forecast honolulu oahu.
The North Shore is currently seeing some massive action. We just came off a High Surf Warning that was extended through Saturday morning. Waves on north-facing shores have been hitting that 25 to 35-foot range on the face. Sunday, January 18, is looking like another big day for the pros, with a new northwest swell arriving and surf heights potentially hitting 12 to 14 feet.
For the rest of us who just want to paddle around without fearing for our lives, the South Shore (Waikiki area) is much calmer. We’re talking 0 to 1-foot ripples. It’s basically a lake over there right now, which is perfect if you’re a beginner or just want to float.
Why the wind matters
Notice how the wind direction changes in the forecast? Right now, it's an "East" trade wind. But by Monday and Tuesday, it veers to the "South" and "Southeast." Local surfers call this "Kona winds." When the winds come from the south, it usually brings muggier air and can make the ocean a bit "choppy" or "sloppy" on the North Shore. It’s also when the vog (volcanic smog) from the Big Island sometimes drifts up to Oahu, though that’s less of an issue lately.
Surprising things about January weather in Honolulu
Most people think "winter" in Hawaii means it’s cold. It’s not.
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The average high in January is about 79°F, and we rarely drop below 68°F at night. This year is staying right on track with those averages. The "coldest" day in this 10-day stretch is Thursday, and even then, it's 75°F. That’s a summer day for half of the mainland.
The real thing to watch is the "UV Index." Even on cloudy days like the ones coming up on Wednesday and Thursday, the UV index is around 2 to 4. On the sunny days (Monday/Sunday), it hits 5. You will get burned if you aren't careful, even if it feels "cool" because of the 15 mph winds.
Actionable tips for your Oahu week:
- Book the North Shore early: If you want to see the big waves, go Sunday or Monday. By the time the thunderstorms hit next Saturday, the conditions will be messy and potentially dangerous.
- The "Rainy Day" Pivot: Plan your indoor activities—like the Bishop Museum or shopping at Ala Moana Center—for Thursday, Jan 22, and Friday, Jan 23.
- Check the Tides: If you're heading to the Hanuama Bay or tide pools, remember that "High Surf" warnings on the North Shore can still cause "surges" elsewhere.
- Pack for "Hawaii Cold": A light windbreaker is essential for the evenings, especially when the humidity is 75% and the wind is kicking at 17 mph.
Basically, enjoy the sun while it lasts this weekend. You've got about three days of prime beach weather before the clouds take over.
Stay dry during those mid-week showers, and keep an eye on that Saturday thunderstorm—it might be a good day to stay in and catch up on some rest before the sun returns in full force on the 25th.