Honestly, looking at the weather forecast Big Bear Lake 10 day data right now, it’s kinda weird. You’d think January in the San Bernardino Mountains would be a constant blizzard, but the atmosphere has other plans for the next week and a half.
If you’re planning to head up the mountain, don't pack for a frozen tundra just yet.
Right now, we are seeing some unseasonably warm afternoons. Today, January 15, we're hitting highs around 55°F with plenty of sun. It's beautiful, sure, but if you're a skier, you're probably looking at that number and grimacing. The good news? The nights are still dropping into the low 30s and 20s, which is basically the "golden window" for the snowmaking teams at Snow Summit and Bear Mountain to keep the runs alive.
The Reality of the Next 10 Days (Jan 15 - Jan 25)
Basically, we're in a "Bluebird" stretch. You've got clear skies, crisp air, and almost zero chance of natural snowfall through at least the 21st.
Here is the breakdown of what's actually happening on the ground:
- The Warm Stretch (Jan 15 - Jan 21): Expect highs to hover between 53°F and 58°F. Monday, Jan 19, looks particularly mild. If you're hiking Castle Rock, it's going to be perfect. If you're hitting the slopes, expect "mashed potato" snow by 2 PM.
- The Wind Factor: Today we've got some northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts hitting 30 mph. It’s enough to make the chairlift ride a bit chilly, even if the sun is out.
- The Big Dip (Jan 22 - Jan 24): This is where things get interesting. Temperatures are forecast to drop significantly. We’re looking at a high of 44°F on Thursday the 22nd, tumbling down to about 40°F by Friday.
Is there snow coming? Most models, like the GFS, show a dry spell for the next 7 days, but some long-range outlooks hint at a potential shift toward the very end of January. For now, the "natural" powder is MIA.
Why the Snow Report Doesn't Tell the Whole Story
People see "no snow" on the forecast and cancel their trips. Honestly, that's usually a mistake.
Big Bear Mountain Resort is currently operating with about a 18" to 36" base, mostly machine-made. Because the dew point is staying low (around 32°F), the snow stays surprisingly "legit" despite the afternoon sun. I've seen days where it's 50 degrees at the base, but because the air is so dry, the snow doesn't just melt into a puddle—it stays fast.
Currently, Bear Mountain has about 9 out of 27 km of slopes open. It’s not full-tilt winter yet, but the 3 lifts spinning are enough to get your fix.
What to Actually Wear Right Now
Layering is the only way to survive this 10-day window. You'll start the morning in a heavy shell and a mid-layer because 32°F feels biting when the sun is behind a ridge. By lunch, you’ll be stripping down to a base layer or a light hoodie.
Don't forget the sunscreen. At 6,752 feet, that winter sun will fry you faster than a July day at the beach.
The Road Conditions Myth
One thing people get wrong about the weather forecast Big Bear Lake 10 day is the road situation. Since it’s clear and sunny, HWY 18, 38, and 330 are all wide open. No chains required. No drama. It’s the easiest drive you’ll get all season.
If you’re heading up this weekend, just be ready for the crowds. Everyone sees the "Mostly Sunny" forecast and decides it's a great time for a day trip.
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Pro Tip: If you want to avoid the worst of the slush, get to the lifts at 8:30 AM. The snow is groomed to perfection overnight, and the first two hours are always the best before the sun starts doing its thing.
Actionable Next Steps
- Check the Cams: Before you leave, look at the live webcams for Snow Summit. Forecasts can say 50 degrees, but if the mountain is in a shadow or catching a breeze, it feels different.
- Book Mid-Week: Since the next 10 days are dry, avoid the Saturday/Sunday madness. Tuesday and Wednesday (Jan 20-21) will have the same weather but 70% fewer people.
- Hydrate: The air is incredibly dry right now. If you aren't drinking twice as much water as usual, the altitude and the dry wind will give you a headache by sunset.
- Watch the 22nd: Keep an eye on that temperature drop on Jan 22. While no major moisture is predicted yet, a colder atmosphere means the resorts can fire up the snow guns 24/7, which usually leads to more terrain opening up by the following weekend.