So, you’re looking at the big pine key weather forecast and wondering if you should pack that extra hoodie or just commit to the flip-flop lifestyle. Honestly, people think the Keys are just a flat line of 80-degree days, but Big Pine plays by its own rules, especially this week.
Right now, it’s 72°F out there. It feels a bit warmer—around 77°F—thanks to that thick 94% humidity that’s basically a Florida Keys trademark. You’ve got a south wind at 6 mph, which is just enough to keep the mosquitoes from being total jerks, but don't get too comfortable. Things are about to shift.
The Immediate Forecast: Why Sunday is the Outlier
If you’re planning to hit the water today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, keep an eye on the sky. We’re looking at a high of 73°F, but the real story is the light rain moving in. There is a 45% chance of precipitation during the day. It’s not a total washout, but the wind is the real kicker—expect it to crank up to 27 mph from the west.
When the wind shifts to the west or north in Big Pine, it changes the whole vibe of the water. The back country gets choppy, and that "feels like" temp starts to drop fast. By tonight, we’re dipping down to 59°F. For locals, that’s "break out the puffer jacket" weather.
Looking Ahead: The 48-Hour Chill
Monday, January 19, is going to be the literal definition of "crisp."
- High: 65°F (Yeah, you read 그 right)
- Low: 56°F
- Wind: 24 mph from the north
This is that weird window where tourists are still trying to swim while the locals are wearing beanies. It’s partly sunny, which helps, but with a 24 mph north wind, the ocean side is going to be a bit of a mess. If you're here for the Key Deer, they actually love this cooler weather—you'll see them out and about much more than during the mid-day heat of July.
Mid-Week Recovery and Humidity Vibes
By Tuesday and Wednesday, the big pine key weather forecast starts to look like the tropical postcard you probably paid for. We’re climbing back into the low 70s.
🔗 Read more: Secret House of Ivy: Why This Coastal Secret Stays Hidden
Tuesday hits 72°F, and Wednesday bumps up to 73°F. The wind stays fairly high at 24 mph, shifting to the northeast. This is standard winter-in-the-Keys stuff. Northeast winds are "boating winds"—they’re steady, but they can make the reef a little bumpy for snorkeling.
Humidity stays in the 69% to 79% range, which, for this part of the world, actually feels pretty dry and comfortable. It’s that sweet spot where you don't feel like you're wearing the air.
The Weekend Outlook: Pure Gold
If you can hold out until Friday and Saturday, you’re hitting the jackpot.
- Friday: Sunny, 74°F high, and the wind finally chills out to 12 mph.
- Saturday: 75°F high, 72°F low, and a gentle 7 mph breeze.
- Sunday (Next Week): 74°F and 0% chance of rain.
Basically, the end of the week is the prime time for any boat rentals or kayaking out to the Blue Hole. The water visibility usually improves significantly once those 20+ mph winds die down.
What Most People Get Wrong About Big Pine Weather
Most travelers check the "high" temperature and assume it's beach weather. In Big Pine, the wind is the boss. A 75-degree day with a 25 mph wind feels significantly cooler than a 70-degree day that’s dead calm.
Also, the UV index is currently sitting at 0 to 1 because of the cloud cover today, but it’ll jump back to 4 by Monday. Don't let the "cool" air fool you; the reflection off the water will still burn you in about 20 minutes if you aren't careful.
Actionable Tips for This Week
If you are on the island right now, move your outdoor plans to the latter half of the week. Sunday and Monday are going to be gusty and a bit damp. Save the No Name Key bridge sunset for Saturday when the winds are low and the sky is clear.
For the boaters: Monday and Tuesday are "stay in the canal" days. With north and northeast winds at 24 mph, the Florida Bay side is going to be murky and the Atlantic side will have a significant swell. Wait for Friday’s 12 mph east wind for a much smoother ride out to Looe Key.
Pack a windbreaker. Not a heavy coat, just something to cut the breeze. You'll thank me when you're sitting outside at a tiki bar on Monday night and that 56-degree air starts rolling in.