Checking the sky for that neon green glow is basically a national pastime lately. Everyone wants to know the same thing: can we see the aurora borealis tonight, or are we just going to be staring at a dark, empty field in the freezing cold? Honestly, the answer usually depends on three specific numbers that most people ignore because they look like math homework. But if you want to catch the Northern Lights without wasting a tank of gas, you have to look past the viral TikTok "alerts" that are usually three days late.
The sun is currently screaming. We are approaching the Solar Maximum of Solar Cycle 25, which means the sun’s magnetic field is flipping and spitting out Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) like crazy. This is why people in places like Alabama and Italy have been seeing auroras lately. It’s not just for Alaskans anymore.
👉 See also: Where Is the Venus de Milo? Why It’s Not Where You Think
The Kp-Index is Your Best Friend (And Sometimes a Liar)
If you download an aurora app, the first thing you’ll see is a number ranging from 0 to 9. This is the Kp-index. It measures geomagnetic activity. Basically, a Kp 0 means the Earth’s magnetic field is quiet, while a Kp 9 means a massive G5 geomagnetic storm is happening—the kind that fries satellites and makes the sky turn blood red.
For most of the northern United States and UK, you generally need at least a Kp 5 (a minor G1 storm) to see anything on the horizon. If you’re in the Southern US or Southern Europe, you’re looking for a Kp 7 or higher. But here’s the kicker: the Kp-index is an average. It’s a lagging indicator. You can have a Kp 4 and see a spectacular show if the "Bt" and "Bz" numbers—the IMF magnetic field factors—align perfectly.
I’ve stood in a field in Iceland with a Kp 6 and saw absolutely nothing because the clouds were thick. Then, I’ve seen the sky explode at a Kp 2 in Fairbanks. Nature is fickle. To answer can we see the aurora borealis tonight, you have to check the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) dashboard. They provide 30-minute forecasts that are way more accurate than those "daily" outlooks you see on the news.
Why Your Phone Sees More Than You Do
You’ve probably seen those incredible photos on Instagram where the sky looks like a glowing lime-green curtain. Then you go outside, and it looks like a faint, greyish mist. That’s because of the human eye’s Scotopic vision. Our eyes aren’t great at seeing color in the dark.
Your smartphone, however, is a beast.
Modern iPhones and Androids have "Night Mode" that keeps the shutter open for 3 to 10 seconds. This allows the sensor to soak up photons that your retinas simply can't process. If you’re standing outside wondering if those are Northern Lights or just light pollution from a nearby town, pull out your phone. Take a 3-second exposure. If the screen shows green, the aurora is there. It’s "photographic aurora." Sometimes, the show starts faint and then "activates," becoming visible to the naked eye as shimmering curtains. Patience is the only way to win this game.
The Three Killers of Your Aurora Search
You can have the biggest solar storm in a decade, but three things will still ruin your night.
- Light Pollution: You cannot see the aurora from downtown Chicago or London unless it’s a historic "Carrington Event" level storm. You need to get away from the orange glow of streetlights. Use a "Dark Sky Map" to find a Bortle 4 zone or lower.
- The Moon: A full moon is basically a giant natural lightbulb. It washes out the faint greens and purples of the aurora. The best time to see the aurora is during a New Moon or when the moon has already set.
- Cloud Cover: This is the most frustrating one. If there is a 100% overcast deck, you aren't seeing anything. Period. Always cross-reference the aurora forecast with a high-resolution cloud map like Ventusky or Clear Outside.
What Experts Like Dr. Tamitha Skov Look For
When "Space Weather Woman" Dr. Tamitha Skov or the team at NOAA talk about "Fast Solar Wind," they are looking at the speed of the particles hitting our atmosphere. If the solar wind speed is over 500 km/s and the Bz value (the North-South direction of the interplanetary magnetic field) is "negative" or "pointing South," the door to our atmosphere is open.
Think of it like a magnet. If the sun’s magnetic field is pointing the same way as Earth’s, they repel. If the sun’s field flips South (Negative Bz), they connect. That’s when the energy pours in and the lights start dancing. If you see a "Bz" of -10 or -15 on a space weather app, grab your coat. It's happening.
How to Actually Catch the Lights Tonight
Stop looking at the 24-hour forecast. It’s too broad. Instead, follow these steps to maximize your chances.
First, check the Ovation Prime model. This is a map that shows a green "donut" over the poles. If that donut is stretching down over your latitude, you have a chance.
Second, look at the live Magnetometers. When the lines on the graph start jumping up and down wildly, it means the Earth’s magnetic field is shaking. That’s the "substorm" hitting.
Third, get to a North-facing view. Most auroras start as a low "glow" on the Northern horizon. If you have a mountain or a forest blocking your view of the North, you’ll miss the start of the show. Find a lake or a wide-open field.
Actionable Next Steps for Tonight
- Check the Bz: Open a site like SpaceWeatherLive. If the Bz is negative (in the red), the "door" is open.
- Find a North-Facing Spot: Use Google Maps to find a location with a clear view of the Northern horizon, away from city lights.
- Download "Aurora Alerts": Set the notification threshold to Kp 4 or higher so your phone pings you when the activity spikes.
- Pack a Tripod: You cannot hold your phone steady enough for a 10-second exposure. A cheap tripod is the difference between a blurry mess and a masterpiece.
- Let Your Eyes Adjust: It takes about 20 minutes for your "night vision" to fully kick in. Stop looking at your bright phone screen every two seconds. Turn the brightness all the way down.
The sun is more active now than it has been in over a decade. Even if the forecast looks "quiet," the aurora can surprise you. It’s a waiting game, but when the sky finally starts to ripple, you’ll realize why people spend thousands of dollars chasing this phenomenon. Stay warm, keep your gas tank full, and keep your eyes on the North.