Honestly, if you're looking at the Flagstaff weather forecast snow situation right now, you might be a little confused. One minute we're hearing about "Snow-mageddon" and the next, the National Weather Service is talking about "above normal temperatures."
It’s weird.
Flagstaff is one of those places where the weather doesn't just change; it pivots. You’ve probably seen the local saying: "If you don't like the weather, wait five minutes." Right now, in mid-January 2026, that’s more than a cliché. It’s a survival guide for your weekend plans.
The Current State of the Flagstaff Weather Forecast Snow
So, here is the deal as of Wednesday, January 14, 2026. If you were hoping to wake up to a fresh foot of powder today, I've got some bad news. It’s basically sunny out there.
Today’s high is hitting around 49°F, which is actually quite warm for this high up. We're looking at a 10% chance of rain—not snow—during the day. By tonight, it clears up completely with a low of 36°F. It’s "light jacket" weather, not "break out the shovel" weather.
But don't let the sunshine fool you.
The wind is kicking up to 19 mph from the northeast. Up on the peaks, that feels a lot colder than the thermometer says. If you're heading to Arizona Snowbowl, you’re looking at a 35-inch base depth. They’ve had about 85 inches so far this season, which sounds like a lot until you realize how quickly a warm spell can chew through that pack.
What the Experts Are Saying
The National Weather Service in Flagstaff just dropped an update. They’re tracking a massive ridge of high pressure sitting over Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. This thing is basically a giant heater for the West.
"Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story for the forecast period." - NWS Flagstaff Area Forecast Discussion.
What does that mean for the Flagstaff weather forecast snow? It means we’re in a holding pattern. We just had a decent little dump back on January 8th and 9th—about 4 to 6 inches depending on where you were standing—but that’s mostly settled now.
Why This Winter Feels So Different
If you’ve lived here a while, you know January is usually the "big" month.
Historically, Flagstaff averages about 20 inches of snow in January alone. But 2026 is playing by different rules. We’re seeing a split story. The southern mountains are getting hammered in some spots, while the northern plateaus (that's us) are staying drier.
It’s kinda frustrating if you’re a skier.
Most people get this wrong: they think a "warmer than average" winter means it won't snow. That’s a myth. In the mountains, you can have a month that's 5 degrees warmer than usual and still get a three-foot storm. It just means the snow doesn't stay as long, and the roads turn to slush faster.
The "Bookend" Winter Theory
Some long-range forecasts, like the stuff coming out of the Old Farmer’s Almanac and AccuWeather, are calling 2026 a "bookend winter."
Basically, the theory is that we get hammered in the beginning (November/December) and again at the very end (late February/March), with a weird, dry "hole" in the middle. We're currently sitting right in that hole.
Surviving the "Dry" January
If you're visiting right now, don't cancel your trip. Flagstaff is actually beautiful when it’s 50 degrees and sunny. You can actually hike the lower trails without needing crampons.
But you've gotta watch the nights.
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Even when the day hits 55°F (like it’s supposed to on Thursday, Jan 15), the nights are still dropping to 32°F or lower. That means any leftover snow from last week melts during the day, runs across the road, and turns into a sheet of black ice by 8:00 PM.
I’ve seen more accidents on "clear" nights than during actual blizzards. Seriously.
What to Pack Right Now
- Sunscreen: The UV index is hitting 2 or 3. At 7,000 feet, that’ll burn you faster than a beach in Cali.
- Layers: Think t-shirt, hoodie, and a windbreaker.
- Humidifier: The humidity is hovering around 30-40%. Your nose will thank you.
Looking Ahead: When Will the Snow Return?
If you're looking for the next real Flagstaff weather forecast snow event, keep your eyes on the end of next week.
The NWS mentions that the high-pressure ridge might start weakening around Wednesday, Jan 21 or Thursday, Jan 22. Some ensemble models are hinting at a "return to unsettled weather." In meteorologist-speak, that means "we think a storm is coming but we don't want to promise anything yet."
Snowbowl is still 77% open. The trails are machine-groomed. It’s not "epic deep powder" right now, but it’s solid spring-style skiing in the middle of winter.
Actionable Steps for Your Flagstaff Trip
Instead of just checking the weather app on your phone (which is usually wrong about mountain micro-climates anyway), do this:
- Check the "Area Forecast Discussion": Go to the NWS Flagstaff website. Look for the "Discussion" link. It’s written by the actual humans who live here, not a computer algorithm.
- Watch the NDOT Cameras: If you’re worried about I-17 or I-40, look at the live ADOT cameras. If the road looks wet and the sun is going down, stay put.
- Support Local: If the slopes are too slushy for your taste, downtown Flagstaff is much more walkable in this weather. Go to Mother Road Brewing or MartAnne's. They’re less crowded when the "powder hounds" stay home.
- Wait for the "February Punch": If you’re planning a big ski trip, aim for the first or second week of February. Historically, that’s when the pattern shifts back to the heavy stuff.
The snow hasn't given up on us yet. It’s just taking a nap. Keep your gear ready, because when Flagstaff decides to dump, it usually does it all at once.