You’ve probably heard that Spain is all about sun, sangria, and scorching heat. Honestly, if you’re planning a trip to the capital right now, throw that stereotype out the window. January in Madrid is a different beast entirely. It’s dry. It’s crisp. And yeah, it’s kinda freezing.
Right now, as of January 17, 2026, the city is sitting at a chilly 39°F with a light rain falling. But don't let the "Spain" label fool you; the madrid weather forecast 30 days outlook shows we're in the thick of a real continental winter. We aren't talking about a tropical drizzle here. We’re talking about a mix of rain and snow that’s hitting the cobblestones today with an 85% chance of precipitation.
The 30-Day Reality: Sun, Ice, and the Meseta
Madrid sits on a high plateau called the Meseta. Because of that altitude—over 600 meters up—the cold here isn't the damp, bone-chilling humidity you get in London or Seattle. It's a "dry cold."
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Basically, the sun can be blindingly bright at noon, making you want to peel off your coat, but the second you step into the shadow of a building in Malasaña, you’ll feel that 31°F low biting at your ears.
Looking at the next few weeks, the forecast is a bit of a roller coaster. Tomorrow, Sunday the 18th, things clear up slightly with a high of 46°F and some "partly sunny" intervals, but the night remains a gamble with more rain and snow likely. By midweek, specifically Wednesday the 21st, another front moves in, bringing a 65% chance of snow and rain.
If you're coming for the FITUR tourism fair (Jan 21-25), you're going to want more than just a "cute jacket." You need a real coat. The wind speeds are expected to pick up to about 11-13 mph toward the end of next week, which makes that 44°F high feel significantly more aggressive.
Why January is Secretly Great
Most people avoid the city this time of year. Their loss.
The crowds at the Prado Museum are thinner. You can actually see Las Meninas without a stranger's selfie stick in your eye. Plus, the light in Madrid during winter is incredibly sharp and beautiful for photography—locals call it the cielo velazqueño (Velázquez sky).
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- January 17-20: Mostly cloudy, highs in the mid-40s, lows hovering right at freezing (30°F-32°F).
- January 21-26: A wetter stretch. Expect mixed precipitation. Monday the 26th looks particularly slushy with a 65% chance of snow.
- Late January into February: Historically, February starts to see a tiny bump in temperatures, reaching average highs of 54°F, but don't count on it yet.
What to Wear (The "Layer or Die" Strategy)
The biggest mistake travelers make here is underestimating the night. I’ve seen people walking around Puerta del Sol in light hoodies because the afternoon sun felt "warm enough." Then 6:00 PM hits. The sun vanishes. The temperature drops 10 degrees in twenty minutes.
Honestly, the "gilet" or fleece vest is your best friend. You can stuff it in a bag when you're inside a cozy tapas bar eating callos a la madrileña—that heavy, chickpea and tripe stew that is basically mandatory in January—and zip it up the second you head back out.
If you’re here for the Fiestas de San Antón this weekend, look out for the traditional panecillos (blessed buns). They’re hard as rocks, but they’re part of the local flavor. Just wear gloves while you're holding your beer outside; the northwest wind today is small (2 mph) but it’s damp.
Looking Ahead: The February Shift
As we peer into the tail end of this 30-day window, the madrid weather forecast 30 days trend suggests we’ll stay in this "mostly cloudy" pattern. We see a lot of 10% and 20% chances of rain, which in Madrid usually means a quick afternoon shower rather than a day-long washout.
The humidity is currently high (around 95%), which is unusual for Madrid’s typically dry air. This is why it feels "colder than the number says" right now. By the time we hit early February, the UV index will start to creep up from 1 to 2 or 3. It sounds low, but the Madrid sun is deceptively strong even in winter. Sunglasses are not optional.
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Actionable Tips for your Madrid Winter Trip
- Check the "Feels Like" Temp: Don't just look at the high of 48°F. If the wind is coming from the southwest at 11 mph like it will on Friday the 23rd, it’s going to feel like 40°F.
- Book Indoor Mornings: Plan your museum visits (Reina Sofía, Thyssen) for the mornings when the air is frostiest. Save your walks through El Retiro Park for 2:00 PM to 4:00 PM when the sun is at its peak.
- Footwear Matters: You don't need heavy snow boots—the city clears slush fast—but avoid canvas sneakers. If that 35% chance of rain hits, wet feet in 39°F weather will ruin your day.
- Chocolate con Churros: This isn't just a tourist trap; it's a survival mechanism. San Ginés is open 24/7 for a reason.
While the next 30 days might look a bit grey on paper, Madrid’s energy doesn't dip with the thermometer. Just pack a scarf, expect a bit of sleet, and enjoy having the world's best art galleries almost to yourself.
To stay ahead of the changing conditions, keep an eye on the local AEMET (State Meteorological Agency) updates every 48 hours, as the plateau weather can shift faster than a waiter at a busy terrace. Look for the "cota de nieve" (snow level) reports if you plan on taking a day trip to Segovia or the Sierra de Guadarrama, where the snow will be much more than just a "mix."