Honestly, the air in Los Angeles gets a little weird this time of year. It’s that specific mix of desperation, expensive perfume, and the low-hum anxiety of publicists hyperventilating into their lattes. We are officially on the precipice. On January 22, 2026, Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman are going to stand in front of a microphone and change a few dozen lives by reading the official list of Oscar nominations for the 98th Academy Awards.
But if you’ve been paying attention to the precursors—the Globes, the SAG snubs, the critical darlings that somehow have no money for a campaign—you know this year isn't going to be a "business as usual" situation. We are looking at a potential collision between massive blockbusters and the kind of weird, prickly cinema that usually stays in the shadows.
The Best Picture Chaos: 10 Slots and Too Many Egos
The Academy expanded the Best Picture field to a firm ten nominees a while back to avoid the "Dark Knight" outrage, but this year, ten almost doesn't feel like enough. We’ve got legacy directors like Paul Thomas Anderson throwing down the gauntlet with One Battle After Another. It’s big, it’s loud, and it’s arguably his most "accessible" movie in years, which is usually a dog whistle for Oscar voters.
Then you have the horror-thriller contingent. Usually, the Academy treats horror like a skunk at a garden party, but Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is making it impossible to look away. It’s got that cultural "heft" that voters crave.
Here is what the list of Oscar nominations for Best Picture is likely going to look like, based on the current temperature of the room:
- One Battle After Another (The heavyweight champion)
- Hamnet (The emotional powerhouse)
- Sinners (The "genre" film that’s too good to ignore)
- Marty Supreme (A24’s golden child this season)
- Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro basically has a permanent reserved seat)
- Sentimental Value (The international dark horse)
- Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos being Yorgos Lanthimos)
- Train Dreams (The "quiet" masterpiece)
- Wicked: For Good (The "Box Office" save)
- F1 (The technical marvel that might just sneak in)
It’s a weird list. You have a movie about a ping-pong player (Marty Supreme) potentially sitting next to a sprawling epic about the mother of Shakespeare (Hamnet). That’s the kind of variety that keeps the ceremony from being a total snooze-fest.
The Actor Races: Chalamet vs. The World
If you’re betting on Best Actor, you’ve probably already put your money on Timothée Chalamet. His performance in Marty Supreme has been sweeping up everything. It’s a transformative role, but not in that "I wore five pounds of latex" way—more in a "I’ve completely changed my soul" way.
But don't count out Michael B. Jordan. His work in Sinners is raw. It’s the kind of performance that SAG voters loved, and that often translates to Oscar gold. Then there’s Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. Does the Academy want to give him a second one? Maybe. He’s Leo. He exists in a different stratosphere of fame where the rules are just... different.
The Best Actress "Lock"
Is Jessie Buckley a lock for Hamnet?
Basically, yes.
Unless something catastrophic happens, she’s taking that statue home. She’s been the frontrunner since the movie premiered at Telluride, and the momentum hasn't slowed down for a second. The real fight is for the other four spots.
You’ve got Emma Stone for Bugonia, who is apparently trying to win an Oscar every other year at this point. Rose Byrne is also a massive contender for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. She won the Globe, and the industry has a lot of "it's her time" goodwill built up for her. The wildcard is Chase Infiniti. She’s the breakout of the year in One Battle After Another, and the Academy loves a "Star is Born" narrative.
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The Snubs We’re Already Bracing For
Every year, someone gets robbed. It’s part of the tradition. This year, the "robbery" might happen in the supporting categories.
The SAG Awards already did Cynthia Erivo dirty by leaving her off for Wicked: For Good, while nominating her co-star Ariana Grande. If the list of Oscar nominations follows suit, expect the "Wicked" fans to burn down the internet. It’s a weird dynamic when a sequel doesn't capture the same magic as the first part, and Erivo might be the casualty of that "sequel fatigue."
Another potential heartbreak? The Smashing Machine.
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson went full Method for this Mark Kerr biopic. He looked unrecognizable. He did the work. But the movie's box office was a thud, and in Hollywood, if no one saw you act, did you actually act? He might be left out in the cold in favor of veterans like Ethan Hawke or Jesse Plemons.
Why the "Technical" Categories Matter This Year
Usually, people go to the kitchen to get snacks when the "Best Sound" or "Best Visual Effects" categories come up. Don't do that this year.
The technical list of Oscar nominations is where the real war is happening.
Avatar: Fire and Ash is obviously going to dominate the visual effects conversation—James Cameron doesn't know how to do anything else. But movies like F1 and Tron: Ares are pushing different kinds of boundaries. F1 in particular used actual racing footage that makes you feel like your teeth are rattling.
Actionable Next Steps for Awards Fans
If you want to be the smartest person at your Oscar watch party, here is what you need to do before the January 22nd announcement:
- Watch the "Shortlists": The Academy already released shortlists for 12 categories, including International Feature and Original Song. If a movie isn't on that list, it’s not getting nominated. Period.
- Follow the Guilds: The DGA (Directors) and PGA (Producers) nominations are the best predictors of what the "big" Oscar list will look like. They are the same voters.
- Check the "Release Windows": Some of these movies, like Sentimental Value, are just now hitting limited theaters. Track them down. If you see them now, you won't be scrambling to find a weird streaming service two days before the ceremony.
- Ignore the "Gossip": Ignore the social media noise about who "deserves" it. Focus on the campaign spending. Look at which actors are doing the most interviews on the late-night circuit. In the Oscars, visibility is often more important than the actual performance.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony goes down on March 15, 2026. Until then, keep your eye on that January 22nd reveal—it’s going to be a wild ride.