If you think Arizona is just a giant sandbox with saguaros, you’ve clearly never been to Flagstaff in January. Right now, on January 17, 2026, the city is sitting under a bright, deceptive sun. It’s 39°F outside. Honestly, it feels like 32°F because of a 10 mph wind coming off the peaks. But the big question everyone is texting about is the snow. When is it actually coming back?
Flagstaff is a high-altitude wildcard. People forget it’s at 7,000 feet.
Current conditions are dry, but the snow forecast Flagstaff regulars are watching points to a shift starting next weekend. We are in a weird "dry slot" right now. The sky is sunny. The ground is mostly bare in town. But if you look up at the San Francisco Peaks, Arizona Snowbowl is holding onto a 33-inch base depth. They’ve had 85 inches so far this season. Not bad, but we’ve definitely seen wilder years.
The Short-Term Outlook: Sun Now, Flurries Later
Don't go washing your car just yet.
Today is basically a "bluebird" day. The high is hitting 45°F. Tonight it drops to 29°F. Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, it actually warms up to a balmy 55°F. That’s the classic Flagstaff "fake spring" that lures you into wearing a t-shirt before the next storm hits and freezes your pipes.
If you’re hunting for fresh powder, you’re going to have to be patient. Monday and Tuesday (January 19-20) look mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40s. There is a tiny, 10% chance of a stray flake on Monday night, but it’s nothing to get the shovel out for.
Looking Toward Next Weekend
This is where it gets interesting. The models are starting to sniff out a pattern change.
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By Saturday, January 24, we’re looking at a transition to mostly cloudy skies. The daytime high stays around 46°F, but the chance of snow showers jumps to 20% by Saturday night.
Sunday, January 25, is the one to watch. We’re seeing a 35% chance of snow showers during the day and another 35% at night. The high will be 48°F—which is warm for snow—so expect that heavy, wet "heart attack" snow rather than the light fluffy stuff. Monday, January 26, follows up with a mix of rain and snow.
Why Flagstaff Weather is So Hard to Predict
The San Francisco Peaks create their own weather. It’s called orographic lift. Basically, clouds hit the mountains, get pushed up, cool down, and dump everything they’ve got.
- The "Split" Effect: Sometimes a storm looks massive on the radar coming from California, but it splits. One half goes to Utah, the other to Phoenix as rain, and Flagstaff gets left with nothing but wind.
- The Temperature Cliff: A two-degree difference is the gap between a foot of snow and a miserable, slushy rainstorm.
- The Wind Factor: Wind from the east—like we have today—usually means dry air. We need that moisture-heavy flow from the southwest to really get the big totals.
According to the National Weather Service, this 2025-2026 season is being influenced by a weak La Niña. Historically, that means we get fewer storms, but the ones we do get can be massive. We're talking 20+ inches in a single go. We haven't seen that "Big One" yet this January, but the late-month window is looking prime for a surprise.
Real Talk for Travelers and Locals
If you are planning to drive up from Phoenix next weekend, listen up.
I-17 is a nightmare the second a single snowflake touches the pavement. People forget how to drive. They don't have the right tires. It’s a mess. Honestly, if the Sunday, January 25 forecast holds, try to get into town by Saturday morning.
Survival Tips for a Flagstaff Snow Day
- Check the "Base": Arizona Snowbowl is currently 77% open. They have 8 out of 8 lifts spinning. Even without fresh snow this week, the "machine-groomed" runs like Northstar and Hart Prairie are solid.
- Layer Up: It’s 39°F now, but it will be 29°F tonight. You need a shell that stops the wind. The wind here doesn't just blow; it bites.
- Humidity is Low: It’s 31% humidity right now. You’ll get dehydrated before you realize it. Drink more water than you think you need.
Actionable Next Steps
Stay on top of the snow forecast Flagstaff updates as we approach the January 24-25 window. Forecasts this far out usually shift. A 35% chance can easily turn into a Winter Storm Warning by Thursday.
Keep your gas tank at least half full. In the high country, you never want to be stuck in a closure with the "low fuel" light on. Check the ADOT (Arizona Department of Transportation) cameras before you head out; they are the only real way to see what the roads look like in real-time. If you're heading to the slopes, grab your tickets online early—the dynamic pricing for Snowbowl gets expensive if you wait for a powder day to buy.