Honestly, if you're looking at the temperature in Iceland today, you might be staring at your weather app in total disbelief.
It's Sunday, January 18, 2026, and the numbers are weirdly high. We’re seeing a high of 45.0°F (7.2°C) in Reykjavík right now. For the middle of January—traditionally the coldest, darkest, "I-can't-feel-my-face" month in the North Atlantic—that is essentially a heatwave. But don't go packing your flip-flops just yet. Iceland has a funny way of making 45 degrees feel like you're standing in a walk-in freezer with a jet engine pointed at you.
The Reality of the Forecast Right Now
Basically, the "official" temperature is only half the story. While the thermometer is hovering around a balmy-for-winter 38.0°F (3.3°C) to 45.0°F (7.2°C), the Icelandic Meteorological Office (Veðurstofa Íslands) has already slapped a yellow warning on the map for today.
Why? Because the wind is coming in hot. Or, well, fast.
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We are looking at southeasterly winds ripping across the western part of the island at speeds between 13-20 m/s. If you aren't a scientist, just know that’s enough to rip a car door right out of your hand if you aren't careful. There’s heavy rain hitting Southwest Iceland, and those "mild" temperatures are being driven by a low-pressure system that’s bringing plenty of moisture and chaos along with it.
Why it feels different than the app says
- The Wind Chill Factor: A 45-degree day with 40 mph gusts feels closer to 28°F.
- Horizontal Rain: Today isn't a "cute umbrella" day. It’s a "waterproof everything or stay inside" day.
- Microclimates: While Reykjavík is wet and relatively warm, the Highlands and the North are likely still dealing with ice and snowdrifts that don't care about the capital’s rain.
Iceland's Temperature Trends in 2026
You've probably heard that Iceland is warming up, and the data from early 2026 sort of backs that up. Usually, January averages between -3°C and 3°C (26°F to 37°F). Today’s high of 45°F is significantly above that curve.
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Experts like Irina Shtreis have been tracking this "cooler spell" that’s supposed to arrive right after this current rainy mess clears out. It’s a classic Icelandic "wait five minutes" scenario. By tomorrow, we could easily be back to sub-zero temperatures and black ice.
One thing people always get wrong is thinking Iceland is like Greenland. It’s not. Thanks to the Gulf Stream, it’s actually more temperate than New York or Chicago in the winter—just much, much windier.
What This Means for Travelers Today
If you are actually in the country today, your plans probably just got nuked by that yellow wind warning.
Tour operators often cancel glacier hikes or boat trips when the wind gets this high. It sucks, but it's better than being blown off a literal ice cap. On the bright side, the solar activity in 2026 is at a massive peak. NOAA and other space weather agencies are predicting some of the best Northern Lights we’ve seen in a decade.
The catch? You need clear skies. Today’s rain and overcast clouds are the enemy of the Aurora, but as soon as this warm front passes and the temperature drops back toward freezing, those skies usually clear up.
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Survival Tips for an Icelandic "Warm" Day
- Park against the wind: Seriously. If you're driving a rental, check the wind direction before you open your door. If the wind is behind the door, it will bend the hinges.
- Wool over cotton: Even if it’s 45 degrees, once you get wet, cotton will freeze you to death. Stick to Icelandic wool (Lopapeysa) or synthetic layers.
- Check road.is: Don't trust Google Maps today. If the road is marked yellow or red on the official Icelandic road site, don't go.
- Geothermal is your friend: If the weather is trash, go to a local pool or the Blue Lagoon. There is nothing better than sitting in 100°F water while 45°F rain hits your face.
The temperature in Iceland today is a perfect example of why you can't just pack based on a number. It’s a dynamic, living environment where the "feels like" temperature is the only one that actually matters for your safety.
Your Next Steps:
Keep a close eye on the Icelandic Met Office for the next 6 hours. As this warm front moves through, the wind speeds are expected to peak before the temperature drops tonight. If you’re planning to drive toward Vík or the South Coast, consider delaying until the yellow warning clears, as gusts in those open plains can be significantly higher than the averages reported in the city.