Everything feels a little weird in the markets this morning. If you're looking at US stock futures now, you'll see a screen that's mostly green, but it’s that cautious, "don't-move-too-fast" kind of green. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 are leading the pack, up about 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Dow are lagging slightly behind with much thinner gains.
It's Saturday, January 17, 2026. The big story isn't just the numbers. Honestly, it’s the fact that the "bears" seem to have checked out for the winter. Despite Treasury yields hitting four-month highs yesterday—the 10-year note is sitting uncomfortably at 4.23%—the futures market is acting like it couldn't care less. Usually, when yields spike, tech stocks dive. Not today.
The AI Shield and the TSM Effect
Why is the tech sector holding up so well? Basically, we're still riding the wave from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM). Their Q4 earnings were a monster, and the "One Big Beautiful Act" tax cuts are starting to look very real to institutional investors. When the world's biggest chipmaker says AI demand is "insatiable," people listen.
We saw Micron (MU) jump nearly 8% on Friday after a board member dropped $8 million into their own stock. That’s a massive vote of confidence. It’s hard to stay bearish on US stock futures now when the people on the inside are buying the dip with eight-figure checks.
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Bank Earnings: A Mixed Bag
If tech is the engine, banks are usually the brakes. But even here, the news is sorta decent. PNC Financial knocked it out of the park with a 25% profit jump. They’re benefiting from what they call "strong dealmaking and advisory fee growth."
- PNC Financial (PNC): Beating expectations, stock up.
- Regional Lenders: Regions Financial (RF) struggled, down about 3% on weak guidance.
- The Trump Factor: Financials are feeling the heat from the proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. That’s a huge wildcard that could kneecap earnings for the big issuers like JPMorgan and Citi later this year.
What’s Actually Moving the Needle?
You've probably heard the chatter about the Federal Reserve leadership. It’s a mess. Jerome Powell's term is winding down, and President Trump is playing a game of "will-he-won't-he" with Kevin Hassett. Markets originally thought Hassett was a lock for the Chair position. Now? Not so sure.
The uncertainty is what pushed those Treasury yields to 4.23%. Investors hate not knowing who’s holding the steering wheel at the Fed. If Hassett gets the nod, the market expects aggressive rate cuts. If Trump picks a wildcard, all bets are off.
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The economic calendar has been a bit of a ghost town because of the residual effects of last year's government shutdown. Most of the data we're getting—like the PCE report coming next Thursday—is "dated." It’s from November. Using November data to trade in January 2026 is like trying to check the weather by looking at a photo from two months ago. It’s not great, but it’s all we’ve got.
Geopolitical Cooling
On the global front, things are actually... quiet? For once. The threat of a military strike on Iran has dialed back significantly. This sent crude oil (WTI) tumbling down to around $59 a barrel. Lower energy costs are usually a "hidden tax cut" for the American consumer, which gives US stock futures now a bit of a floor.
Meanwhile, precious metals are going absolutely nuts. Gold is hovering near $4,600 an ounce, and silver recently crossed that psychological $90 barrier. When gold hits records while stocks stay near all-time highs, it tells you that the big money is hedging. They’re hopeful, but they’re also terrified.
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The S&P 500 at 7,000?
We are "spitting distance" from the S&P 500 hitting 7,000. That’s a number that sounded like science fiction two years ago. Most analysts, including those at Ameriprise and Goldman Sachs, are staying constructive. They’re looking at double-digit earnings growth for 2026.
But here’s the rub. Valuations are high. Like, really high. The market is priced for perfection. If companies don't deliver those double-digit gains, the correction won't be a "dip"—it’ll be a crater.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Portfolio
If you're watching the ticker today, don't get blinded by the green. The market is top-heavy.
- Watch the 4.25% Level on Yields: If the 10-year Treasury yield breaks above 4.25% and stays there, expect a sharp rotation out of growth stocks.
- Check the "Equal-Weight" S&P: The standard S&P 500 is being carried by five or six companies. Check the RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF). If it’s not moving with the futures, the rally isn't healthy.
- Hedge with Energy or Metals: With WTI at $59, energy stocks are getting cheap relative to the tech giants. It might be time to look at some of the laggards like Vistra (VST) or Constellation Energy (CEG), especially since they took a 10% haircut recently on grid-shakeup rumors.
Keep an eye on the Tuesday open. Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so the markets are closed. That three-day weekend is a lot of time for news to break, and usually, the futures market on Sunday night will tell the real story of how the week starts.