Honestly, if you're checking the weather forecast Rio de Janeiro Brazil 10 days out, you're probably seeing a lot of rain icons. Don't panic. It's January 2026, and Rio is doing exactly what Rio does in the middle of summer. It is hot. It is humid. And yes, it is "wet," but not in the way that ruins a vacation unless you let it.
Basically, the "Marvelous City" is a steam room right now.
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Currently, as of Thursday night, January 15, we are sitting at a balmy 77°F. It feels more like 81°F because the humidity is holding steady at 79%. If you just landed at Galeão, you've probably already noticed your hair has its own personality now. The wind is a tiny 4 mph whisper from the northeast, which does absolutely nothing to cool you down.
The 10-Day Reality Check
Here is the thing about Rio forecasts: they look way more dramatic than the reality on the ground. You see "75% chance of rain" and think the day is a wash. It usually isn't. Usually, it's just a massive, aggressive afternoon downpour that clears the air before dinner.
For tomorrow, Friday the 16th, expect a high of 86°F. It’ll stay cloudy most of the day with a low of 75°F. You’ve got a 20% chance of rain both day and night. Honestly, that’s great beach weather because the clouds keep you from getting absolutely roasted by the tropical sun.
Saturday is looking similar—87°F high, 75°F low. The UV index is a 6, so don’t skip the SPF just because it’s cloudy. Seriously.
When the Rain Actually Hits
Things shift a bit starting Sunday, January 18. This is when the weather forecast Rio de Janeiro Brazil 10 days gets interesting. A moisture convergence is moving in.
Sunday's high hits 87°F, but that 75% rain chance is real. By Monday, a transient weather system from the Atlantic is going to push temperatures down to a high of 84°F with rain likely all day.
Then we get a weird "cold" snap. And I use "cold" loosely.
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From Tuesday the 20th through Thursday the 22nd, the highs drop to 73°F. For a Carioca (a Rio local), this is basically the Arctic. You’ll see people in puffer jackets. For you? It’s just light rain and 85% humidity. It’s actually a fantastic time to visit the Botanical Garden or head to a museum like the MAR (Museu de Arte do Rio) because the crowds at the beach will vanish.
Rio Weather Misconceptions
People think January is just constant sunshine. It's not. It's actually one of the cloudiest and wettest months. According to INMET (Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology), the South Atlantic Subtropical High usually keeps the worst storms away from Rio, but this week, moisture from the North is winning.
The UV index on Sunday is predicted to be a 10. That is "Extreme" territory. If you are on Ipanema beach when the sun peeks through those clouds, you will burn in fifteen minutes.
By next Saturday, January 24, we’re looking at a return to heat with a high of 80°F, but it comes with a heavy thunderstorm warning. These storms are loud. They are fast. They usually happen because the heat builds up so much during the day that the atmosphere just... snaps.
What to Actually Pack
Forget the "ultimate" lists. You need three things:
- Linen or very light cotton. Synthetic fabrics will make you feel like you're wearing a plastic bag.
- Flip-flops (Havaianas). Don't bother with fancy shoes if it's raining; the streets of Copacabana drain slowly.
- A waterproof phone case. If you get caught in a 4 PM summer storm, your pockets won't save your electronics.
The sea temperature is currently a perfect 77°F. Even if it’s raining, the water is warm. Locals will often stay in the ocean during a light drizzle because, frankly, you're already wet and the water feels like a bath.
Moving Forward with Your Trip
Keep an eye on the wind direction. When it starts coming from the South, like it will on Tuesday, that’s when the temperature drops and the "chilly" 70-degree weather starts. When it's from the North or East, get ready to sweat.
The best strategy for the next 10 days is to plan your outdoor activities—like Christ the Redeemer or Sugarloaf—for the mornings. The clouds tend to thicken by 2 PM, and the chance of a "toró" (a heavy downpour) peaks in the late afternoon.
If you see the clouds turning a weird shade of deep purple over the mountains, it’s time to find a bar, order a caipirinha, and wait thirty minutes. The sun will probably be back before you finish your drink.