If you spent ten minutes scrolling through news headlines this morning, you probably feel like we’re headed for a collapse. Between climate anxiety, economic shifts, and geopolitical tension, the vibe is pretty heavy. But there's this specific perspective—famously championed by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler in their book Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think—that suggests we are completely misinterpreting the trajectory of human history. Honestly, it’s not just blind optimism. It’s about data.
We’re wired to hunt for tigers in the bushes. Our brains are literally prehistoric hardware trying to run 21st-century software. This "negativity bias" is why a single bad review ruins your day even if ten people praised your work. Evolutionarily, the guy who thought every rustle in the grass was a predator survived; the guy who thought it was just a "pretty breeze" got eaten. So, when we look at the world, we see the rustle. We don’t see the massive, exponential growth happening right under our noses.
The Problem With Our Linear Brains
Most of us think in a straight line. If I take 30 linear steps, I end up across the street. If I take 30 exponential steps—doubling the distance each time—I end up billion steps away, which is basically circling the Earth 26 times. This is the core argument of Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think. Technology doesn't move in a straight line. It explodes.
Take solar energy. Back in the 70s, it was a joke. It was expensive, inefficient, and basically a hobby for scientists. But the cost per watt has plummeted by over 99% since then. We aren't just getting "better" at energy; we are moving toward a world where the marginal cost of energy could eventually hit near-zero. When energy becomes basically free, everything else changes. Water desalination becomes cheap. Vertical farming becomes viable. The scarcity that has defined human history for ten thousand years starts to evaporate.
Why Scarcity is a Myth We Keep Telling
We’ve lived in a world of "less" for so long that "more" feels like a lie.
Think about aluminum. In the mid-1800s, aluminum was more valuable than gold. Napoleon III famously gave his most honored guests aluminum cutlery, while the "lesser" guests had to settle for gold. Why? Because aluminum was incredibly hard to extract from the earth. It wasn't scarce in the sense that it didn't exist—it’s actually the most abundant metal in the Earth's crust—but it was inaccessible. Then came the Hall-Héroult process, an electrolysis method that made extraction easy. Suddenly, aluminum was everywhere. Now we use it to wrap leftovers and throw it in the trash.
That’s the "Abundance" roadmap. Technology takes what was once scarce and makes it abundant.
Computers used to take up entire rooms and cost millions. Now, a kid in a village in sub-Saharan Africa has a smartphone with more computing power than NASA had when they put a man on the moon. That kid has access to the same Google search engine as a billionaire in Manhattan. That is the democratization of information. It happened in twenty years. It’s easy to forget how wild that actually is.
The Four Forces Driving This Change
Diamandis and Kotler don't just say "things get better" and leave it there. They point to four specific groups—or forces—that are pushing the needle.
First, you’ve got exponential technologies. We’re talking AI, robotics, infinite computing, and synthetic biology. These aren't just gadgets. They are tools that build other tools.
Then there’s the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) innovator. You don't need a billion-dollar lab anymore. Small teams using 3D printing and open-source software are solving problems that used to be the sole domain of governments. Look at the CubeSat revolution. Small groups are launching satellites for a fraction of what it cost twenty years ago.
The third force is the Technophilanthropist. These aren't just "rich people giving money." These are people like Bill Gates or Elon Musk who are using their wealth to solve "grand challenges" like malaria or space travel. They are taking risks that a government, worried about the next election cycle, simply won't take.
Finally, there’s the Rising Billion. This is the most exciting part, honestly. Over the next few years, billions of people are coming online for the first time. They aren't just consumers; they are producers. They are new minds entering the global economy. Imagine a million new Steve Jobses or Marie Curies suddenly having the tools to contribute to global problem-solving. That’s a massive influx of human capital.
But What About the Environment?
It's fair to be skeptical. "Abundance" sounds a bit like we’re ignoring the giant elephant in the room: climate change. But the argument here is that we can’t solve 21st-century problems with 19th-century mindsets.
Conservation is great, but it’s a defensive play. Abundance is an offensive play.
Instead of just "using less," we develop carbon capture technology that turns CO2 into building materials. Instead of just "eating less meat," we scale up lab-grown leather and meat that requires 99% less land and water. This isn't science fiction. Companies like Upside Foods are already getting FDA approvals. It’s happening.
Is it guaranteed? No.
Progress isn't a straight line and it isn't inevitable. It’s a choice. But the "Future Is Better Than You Think" philosophy argues that we have the tools to make it happen if we stop obsessing over the "rustle in the grass" and start looking at the tools in our hands.
The Misconception of "Enough"
A lot of people hear "abundance" and think it means everyone gets a Ferrari. That’s not it. Abundance is about providing a high quality of life for everyone. It’s about meeting the base of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs—clean water, nutritious food, affordable housing, and quality education—for every person on the planet.
When we hit that baseline, the world changes. People stop fighting over resources when the resources are plentiful. Most wars in history were essentially land or resource grabs. If you can create what you need locally through decentralized manufacturing and renewable energy, the incentive for conflict drops significantly. Sorta changes the whole geopolitical game, doesn't it?
Real Evidence vs. Cultural Pessimism
Harvard professor Steven Pinker has written extensively about this, too. In Enlightenment Now, he points out that by almost every measurable metric—literacy, child mortality, poverty, deaths from war—we are living in the best time in human history.
Why don't we feel it?
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Because "nothing exploded today" isn't a news story. We see the one plane crash, not the 100,000 flights that landed safely. We see the one riot, not the millions of people who lived in peace. We are living through a period of "radical evolution" but we are perceiving it through a lens of "radical crisis."
Actionable Insights for a Better Future
If you want to move from a scarcity mindset to an abundance mindset, you have to change how you consume information and how you view problems. It’s a shift in "mental models."
1. Curate Your Information Diet
Stop letting the "if it bleeds, it leads" algorithm dictate your worldview. Follow platforms like Singularity Hub, Future Crunch, or the Progress Network. They report on the breakthroughs in medicine, tech, and ecology that mainstream news ignores because they aren't "scary" enough.
2. Focus on Dematerialization
Look at the things in your life that used to be physical objects. Your camera, GPS, record player, flashlight, and encyclopedia are now all just "apps" on a phone. This is dematerialization. It reduces our footprint and increases our access. Recognize this trend in other industries, like transportation (car-sharing) or energy.
3. Lean Into Lifelong Learning
In an age of abundance, the most valuable currency isn't what you know—it’s how fast you can learn. AI is going to automate the routine tasks. That’s a good thing. It frees us up to do the creative, high-level work that humans are actually good at. Don't fear the automation; learn to use the tools.
4. Invest in the "Grand Challenges"
Whether you’re an investor or just a consumer, put your resources toward companies solving real problems. Look for businesses focusing on "the bottom of the pyramid" or those working on sustainable energy. Your "vote" with your dollar accelerates the transition to an abundant economy.
5. Practice "Possibility Thinking"
When you see a problem—like the housing crisis—don't just complain about the cost. Look at the tech. Look at 3D-printed homes that can be built in 24 hours for $10,000. The solutions are often already here; they just haven't been scaled yet. Be an advocate for the scale-up, not just a critic of the status quo.
The future isn't a destination we’re drifting toward; it’s something we’re actively building. If you believe the future will be a disaster, you’ll act in ways that make that a self-fulfilling prophecy. But if you see the potential for abundance, you start looking for the levers to pull. The tools are getting better. The people are getting smarter. And honestly, the future is looking a lot brighter than your newsfeed wants you to believe.