Honestly, if you're looking at the stock market right now, it feels like everyone is holding their breath. It’s Sunday, October 26, 2025, and while the trading floors are quiet, the spreadsheets in Seattle, Cupertino, and Mountain View are screaming. This is the "calm" before a week that basically determines if the S&P 500 keeps its record-breaking streak or hits a brick wall.
We've been hearing about the "AI bubble" for what feels like a decade, but this week—the one kicking off right now—is where the rubber meets the road.
The Big Stakes for Tech Earnings Today October 26 2025
You’ve got to understand the weight of the next few days. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are all scheduled to drop their Q3 numbers. Combined, these five companies represent about a quarter of the entire S&P 500. If Alphabet misses on cloud or if Meta's CapEx looks even slightly too "experimental," the whole house of cards could wobble.
Most people think earnings season is just about whether a company made more money than last year. It’s not. It’s about the whisper numbers. It’s about whether Microsoft can justify the billions they’ve poured into data centers. For tech earnings today October 26 2025, the narrative isn't just "growth"—it's "efficient growth."
Why Microsoft is the One to Watch
Investors are obsessing over Azure. Analysts, specifically those like Moerdler, are looking for at least 40% revenue growth there. Why? Because anything less suggests that the massive AI investments aren't trickling down to the bottom line yet. Software is in a weird spot. On one hand, AI makes companies more efficient. On the other, it’s actually cutting the number of software licenses (the "seats") companies need to buy because one person can now do the work of three.
That’s a terrifying prospect for legacy software giants.
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Alphabet and the $100 Billion Milestone
Google’s parent company, Alphabet, is coming off a massive high. They recently crossed the $100 billion quarterly revenue mark for the first time. That’s a staggering amount of money. But here’s the kicker: they are facing immense pressure from the DOJ and competing AI search engines.
If their advertising revenue shows even a tiny crack, the market will punish them. Investors are fickle. They want the AI future, but they also want the old-school search money to stay perfectly intact.
The Meta Spending Problem
Mark Zuckerberg has never been afraid to spend money. But Meta’s recent $16 billion tax charge and their warning that expenses will grow "significantly faster" in 2026 has people on edge.
- CapEx (Capital Expenditure): Expected to rise as they build more AI infrastructure.
- Ad Revenue: Still the backbone, but how much can it carry?
- The "One Big Beautiful Bill": A one-time tax hit that made their last EPS look like a disaster even though the core business was fine.
Basically, if you’re tracking tech earnings today October 26 2025, you’re looking for Meta to prove that their "Year of Efficiency" wasn't just a one-off thing. They need to show that the $40 billion-plus they are spending on chips is actually making Instagram and WhatsApp better at selling you stuff.
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Amazon’s Cloud vs. Retail Tug-of-War
Amazon is a weird beast. AWS (Amazon Web Services) grew about 20% recently, hitting $33 billion in sales. That's the engine. But the retail side is feeling the pinch of new trade policies. The removal of the de minimis exemption—that rule that let cheap packages from overseas slide in without heavy duties—is starting to hurt.
eBay already saw their shares slide 15% because of this. Amazon is bigger and tougher, but they aren't immune to the global trade shift.
Apple’s iPhone 17 Gamble
Apple is currently on a record streak. The iPhone 17 launched in September, and early data suggests it’s doing better than the 16 did. Services revenue is also at an all-time high ($28.75 billion).
But Apple is often the last to the party with new tech. Their "Apple Intelligence" features are rolling out slowly. This week, we’ll find out if people are actually buying the new phones for the AI, or just because their old batteries finally died.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Week
The biggest misconception is that a "beat" means the stock goes up. In 2025, we’ve seen companies beat their earnings per share (EPS) estimates and still see their stock price tank. Why? Because of guidance.
The market doesn't care what you did in July, August, and September. It cares what you’re going to do in December and January. If Tim Cook or Satya Nadella sounds even slightly hesitant about the holiday quarter, the "beat" won't matter.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're managing your own portfolio, don't chase the initial "pop" after an earnings release. Wait for the conference call. That’s where the real info is buried.
- Watch the CapEx: If a company is spending more on AI than they are making from it, that's a red flag for the mid-term.
- Look at the "Other 493": While the Mag 7 (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, etc.) are the stars, the rest of the S&P 500 is actually starting to grow earnings at double digits too. Diversification is finally starting to pay off again.
- Mind the Tariffs: Mention of tariffs on earnings calls has stayed high, especially for consumer goods. This will eventually hit tech hardware prices.
Tomorrow morning, the madness starts. Keep an eye on the pre-market movers for a vibe check on how the big institutions are reacting to the weekend's geopolitical news before the first big tech reports hit the tape.